风险规避偏好下农副产品自然风险管理策略的选择:外部采购还是农业保险?

在农副产品加工行业,自己种植原材料有利于企业控制产品质量、获取低成本优势。然而,随着全球气候的变暖,恶劣天气等自然风险事件频发,这无疑加剧了农副产品制造商面对的自然风险。实践中,制造商可通过外部采购策略或农业保险策略降低自然风险带来的损失。然而,这两种策略各有利弊,对于风险规避制造商而言究竟哪种策略更为有效需进行深入探析。为此,本文以单周期风险规避农副产品制造商的计划产量决策模型为基础,研究企业自然风险管理策略的选择问题。通过比较研究,找出两种策略的实施条件,并给出农副产品制造商应对自然风险的占优策略。研究结果表明:(1)当制造商风险规避程度较低时,利用外部采购策略避险是无效的。这时,如果农业保险的安全因子足够低,农业保险策略可完全补偿缺货成本,并帮助制造商降低计划产量节约种植成本,进而提高CVaR值、改善运营状态;(2)当制造商风险规避程度较高时,外部采购策略可完全消除自然风险造成的产量波动并帮助企业进入该产品市场,而农业保险则是通过补偿自然风险引发的缺货成本帮助企业进入该产品市场。哪种策略更有效取决于外部采购价格和安全因子的大小关系;(3)随着原材料单位种植成本、不利事件发生概率、最终产品单位收益及单位缺货成本的上升,外部采购策略占优区域逐渐扩大而农业保险策略的占优区域逐渐减少。

Determination of strategy against natural risks for farm and sideline products in risk-averse preference:External purchasing or agricultural insurance?

In the agricultural and sideline products processing industry,manufacturers may plant and raise raw materials themselves,which is conducive to the company to control product quality,and access to low-cost advantages.However,with the change of global climate,adverse events such as bad weather are frequently occurring,which undoubtedly exacerbates the output uncertainty risks faced by agricultural and sideline products manufacturers.In operation practice,manufacturers can mitigate the risk using the external purchasing strategy,or the agricultural insurance strategy,to reduce the economic loss caused by the uncertainty of the raw material output for a risk-averse manufacturer.Which strategy is more effective needs further analysis.Based on the decision-making model of the planned capacity of agricultural products by a risk-averse manufacturer,this paper,with the help of the CVaR risk measurement method,deals with the problem of selection of a strategy for natural risk management.The external purchasing strategy and the agricultural insurance strategy are compared with each other in terms of application conditions as well as the optimal strategies so that the implementation conditions of each of the two strategies are discovered.The dominant strategy for manufacturers to manage natural risk leads to the raw materials output uncertainty,and the conditions in which one strategy is dominant to the other are given.The specific issues in the study include:(1)Under what conditions can manufacturers use external purchasing strategies to manage the natural risk?And in the case of external purchasing strategy,how should the manufacturer's optimal planning output and external purchasing quantity be formulated?(2)Under what conditions can manufacturers use agricultural insurance strategy to manage natural risk?In the case of an agricultural insurance strategy,how should the manufacturer's optimal planning output and insurance strategy be formulated?(3)Under what conditions are the external purchasing strategy dominant to the agricultural insurance strategy?And under what conditions is the agricultural insurance strategy dominant to the external purchasing strategy?The results of the study show that when the manufacturer's risk aversion is low,it is ineffective to hedge risks with external purchasing strategy.At this point,if the safety factor of agricultural insurance is low enough,the agricultural insurance strategy can help enterprises improve the CVaR value and better the operation state by fully compensating the shortage cost and reducing the planned output and saving the planting cost.When the manufacturer's risk aversion is high,the external purchasing strategy can eliminate the profit fluctuation caused by output uncertainty and help the company to enter the market,whereas the agricultural insurance is to help enterprises to enter the market in the way of completely compensating the shortage cost caused by adverse events.Which strategy is more effective is dependent on the relationship between the external purchasing price and the security factor.(3)With the increases of unit raising cost of raw material,the probability of adverse events,the unit revenue of a final product,and unit shortage costs,the dominating range of external purchasing strategy gradually expands,while the dominating range of agricultural insurance strategy gradually reduces.In the end,the problems,methods,and results discussed in this study have practical implications for manufacturers to manage the natural risks better,causing the raw material output uncertainty and provide theoretical basis and strategic recommendations for the manufacturers of agricultural and sideline products to manage natural risk.