路演中董事长面部表情与IPO后公司业绩变脸

投资者是否可以利用“软”信息来识别公司的真实价值?社会心理学理论认为人在提供虚假信息(如撒谎)的时候会流露出负面情绪,进而反映到面部表情上。论文以2009年至2014年在创业板上市的公司为样本,分析公司上市后的业绩变脸幅度与其董事长在IPO路演讲话时的负面情绪水平之间的关系。为了提高结论的可靠性,本研究首先基于实验室实验方法设计欺骗行为实验,检验了Facereader软件测量面部表情给出的负面情绪值与欺骗行为之间的相关性。本研究指出可以利用董事长在IPO路演讲话的面部表情来识别公司的真实价值,该结论为保护投资者利益提供了一条新的途径。

Facial expression during IPO roadshow and post-IPO performance

To raise capital,firms actively convey favorable information to investors during IPO(initial public offering)roadshows.Although IPO roadshows are an important way for investors to acquire information,some of the prospectuses that are the basis of these roadshows are deceptive and misleading.The chairmen of the firms know the truth,however,and they may inadvertently reveal it during their roadshow speeches.Social psychology theory proposes that individuals who intentionally provide false information generate negative emotions that could show in their facial expressions.Based on this,we use face-reader software to analyze chairmen’s facial expressions during IPO roadshows to infer whether they are lying about firm performance.We collect videos of IPO roadshows for firms listed on the Growth Enterprise Market(GEM)from 2009 to 2014 to test the relationship between chairmen’s negative emotions in IPO roadshow speeches and post-IPO corporate performance.A large number of studies in social psychology propose that the emotions of speakers vary with the truth of their speeches.They also propose that facial expressions are fundamental conduits for emotions.Accordingly,the more negative chairmen appear to feel during their roadshows,the more likely it may be that their prospectuses are misleading.If that is the case,corporate performance should decline after the IPO.We first test the correlation between the magnitudes of subjects’negative emotions(evaluated by face-reader software)and deceptive behaviors.We design a contrived situation in which subjects may lie without detection.The results show that the magnitude of subjects’negative emotions is significantly positively related to the possibility of lying.Consequently,we can use facial expressions to detect whether someone is lying.We introduce three measures:the total time during which a chairman displays negative emotions during a roadshow speech,the longest time length of negative emotion a chairman displays during a roadshow speech,and the minimum valence value of negative emotion a chairman displays during a roadshow speech.The results show a significantly positive relationship between the magnitude of negative emotion chairpersons show during IPO roadshow speeches and declines in post-IPO performance.Our study thus provides a new way to evaluate corporate value by focusing on chairmen’s facial expressions during IPO roadshows.It also provides a new and easily accessible way for investors to protect themselves.