Expectation/Disillusion and Presidential Popularity: The Reagan Experience

The Sigelman-Knight analysis of the "expectation/disillusion"interpretation of recurring declines in presidential popularityis replicated with data on the Reagan presidency. There is aconnection between Reagan's popularity and expectations aboutwhat he would be able to accomplish, but (just as was the caseduring the Carter presidency, and directly counter to predictions)it was the more highly educated whose expectations of presidentialperformance were initially highest. Moreover, as time passedthe size of the education-based gap in expectations of Reaganincreased over time. These findings leave the expectation/disillusioninterpretation in considerable doubt.