继承与创新：沃尔兹新现实主义理论定位再探讨

肯尼思·沃尔兹的新现实主义是国际政治研究的里程碑,但学界对这一里程碑含义的理解可能存在偏差。这一理论不是国际政治研究科学化的起点,而是对古典现实主义核心论点的历史性再诠释。沃尔兹和其他古典现实主义者一样认为人的理性能力存在限度,相信实力对比是进行利益划分的客观依据,劝告政治家遵行责任伦理。古典现实主义者与沃尔兹之间的差异并没有想象的大,古典现实主义者也强调安全,他们发现国际政治中存在着安全困境,追求过多权力会导致不安全,国家追求权力应适可而止。古典现实主义者还发现世界政治中因果关系非常复杂,事件的结果绝少和当事者的动机一致,“事与愿违”是政治中的常态,这与沃尔兹强调的“系统效应”相似。新古典现实主义者试图将沃尔兹的理论进一步科学化,他们希望结合结构变量与单元变量,提出更科学的理论解释、预测国家的行为,这不仅误解了沃尔兹,也背离了现实主义传统。

Retention and Innovation: the Theoretical Contribution of Kenneth Waltz's Neo-realism Reconsidered

Kenneth N.Waltz’s neo-realism is a milestone in International Relations(IR),but how exactly it constitutes a milestone has been interpreted variously.It does not signify the beginning of scientific study in IR,rather it’s a historic reinterpretation of the core arguments of classical realism.Waltz agrees with classical realists that human rationality is limited,that the distribution of power is the most reliable arbiter when it comes to solving disputes,and that politicians have a moral responsibility to fulfill.The chasm which divides them is not as wide as people thought it to be as classical realists also emphasize the importance of security,and recognize the existence of the security dilemma in which one state’s efforts to maximize its power often end up with insecurity,and it is preferable instead to have appropriate amount power.Classical realists also appreciate the complexity of causal relations in world politics as the results are seldom consistent with participants’motives,and the existence of unintended consequences which is normal in politics is very similar to Waltz’s idea of“systemic effects”.Neo-classical realists who have tried to make the Waltzian theory more scientific by combining structural and unitlevel variables in the hope of producing more precise explanations and predictions of state behaviors have not only misunderstood Waltz,but also deviate from the realist tradition.