对美国战略评估的再思考：理论与方法

战略评估是指关于战略制定和实施的综合评价和衡量,主要体现为大国对世界发展趋势的一种综合分析。战略评估是整个战略决策流程中的重要部分,高质量的战略评估并不能保证高质量的最终战略决策,但是最终战略决策和外交政策必须依赖战略评估。当代美国的战略评估制度,有一套完备体系和科学手段。内容上涵盖了长时间、大空间和多重领域,对政治、经济、军力、科技甚至产业现状和未来趋势做出评估。本文从美国战略评估理论的发展、战略评估的特点出发,以净评估方法为例,深入探讨美国战略评估的方法,进而讨论如何应用这些方法来分析美国国家安全战略报告。只有掌握美国战略评估的理论、逻辑和方法,才能够更好地理解美国战略评估的文本背后的政策含义,从而为应对来自美国的外部挑战提供更为准确的对应措施,也能够进一步推动国际关系理论的发展。

Rethinking the U.S. Strategic Assessment: Theory and Method

As an important part of the strategic decision-making process,strategic assessment refers to the comprehensive evaluation of strategy formulation and implementation,which mainly consists in a comprehensive trend analysis of the great powers in the world.Although high-quality strategic assessment cannot guarantee highquality final strategic decision-making,ultimately strategic decision-making and foreign policy must rely on strategic assessment.The U.S.strategic assessment is characterized by extensive temporal and geographical coverage and the inclusion of multiple issue areas,encompassing the assessment of current and future trends in politics,economy,military power,science and technology,and the industrial sectors.This paper first examines the theoretical evolution and features of U.S.strategic assessment,then uses net assessment as an example to discuss the methods of such assessment,and finally discusses how to apply these methods to analyze U.S.national security strategy reports.Only by understanding the theory,logic and method of U.S.strategic assessment can we go beyond the text of these assessments to better understand the policy implications so as to propose more accurate measures for China to deal with the external challenges posed by the United States,and further promote the theoretical development in international relations.