选择性退出、多边间竞争与特朗普的反制度化国际战略

特朗普改变前任对国际制度的承诺和支持,在国际政治中执行了一种反制度化的国际战略。特朗普的反制度化国际战略由指导原则、主要目标和执行措施构成,是“美国优先”国家安全战略的有机组成部分。反制度化战略以选择性退出主义和竞争性多边主义为基本原则,通过国际制度内的抗议、退约、机制转移及新建国际制度等多重措施,试图把国际制度作为继续维持霸权地位的工具。反制度化国际战略具有历史延续性和当前特殊性相结合的特征,反映了美国的霸凌主义和单边主义。美国自认是自由国际秩序的牺牲品,力图改变现行国际制度体系;中国崛起给美国带来的恐慌和美国的地位焦虑,加速了美国终结其接触与融入的国际制度战略;而特朗普本人对国际制度持质疑态度,执意实施反制度化国际战略。特朗普反制度化战略引发多边主义危机,进一步恶化了基于规则的国际制度体系。不过,这一战略无法阻止多边主义和多边制度的发展演进。反制度化战略能否成功实现,取决于目标、能力与执行的匹配度及多极化的发展趋势。

Selective Withdrawal,Multilateral Competition and Trump's Counter-institutionalization International Strategy

In a reversal of previous U.S.commitment to the international system,Trump has adopted a counter-institutionalization strategy in international politics.This strategy,which is an integral part of the“America First”national security strategy,consists of basic principles,main objectives and instruments.Informed by the principles of selective withdrawal and contested multilateralism,it tries to use the international institutions to maintain U.S.hegemony by using means such as protest,selective withdrawal,regime shifting and competitive regime creation.The strategy is characterized by historical continuity and consistency with current circumstances,reflective of American bullying and unilateralism.The U.S.considers itself a victim of the liberal international order and tries to change the current international institutional system.Trump himself questions the international institutions and insists on implementing the counter-institutionalization strategy.This strategy has triggered the crisis of multilateralism and further worsened the rule-based international institutional system.However,the strategy cannot hinder the development and evolution of the multilateral system.Whether counterinstitutionalization can be successfully realized depends on the matching degree of objectives,capabilities and implementation,and on the future development of multipolarization.