人民币汇率升值的动态可计算一般均衡分析

在动态可计算一般均衡(MCHUGE)模型的基础上,考察了人民币汇率稳步升值对中国对外开放和经济增长的影响。外贸方面,人民币升值会降低总的出口量,提高总的进口量,增加贸易赤字,但长期和短期,对不同产品的进出口影响不一;外资方面,人民币升值会降低我国的外汇储备,加大我国对外直接投资,同时外商对我国的投资会增加;宏观影响方面人民币升值将促进农业、采矿业、公共服务、建筑业、服务业的产出,但在升值初期并不利于制造业的产出,但是总就业和总资本存量的增加最终会带动GDP的增长。

Appreciation of RMB Exchange Rate: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

This paper aims to evaluating the effect of appreciation of RMB exchange rate on Chinese openness and economic growth.In terms of foreign trade,the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will reduce the total volume of export and raise the total volume of import and hence the trade deficit.However,the effect on the import and export for different products varies in the long term and short term.Regarding foreign investment,appreciation of RMB exchange rate will decrease foreign reserve of China and increase overseas investment as well as the foreign direct investment on China.In respect to the national economy as a whole, the appreciation of RMB will raise the output of sector of agriculture,mine,public service,construction and service.In the initial period,the appreciation will decrease the output of manufacturing sector while the increase of total employment and capital stock will drive the increase of GDP in the end.