2011年朝韩关系发展趋势

2010年朝鲜半岛是在局势不断紧张中度过的,这是由朝韩双方矛盾的不可调和性质决定的,也是美国推行其东亚战略的结果。局势不时紧张,甚至发生武装冲突,已成朝鲜半岛的常态。朝韩目前的实力都不足以压制、吞并对方,美国也无力发动对朝鲜的战争,中俄是遏制战争的有力因素,斗而不破是朝韩关系的特征,半岛发生大战的可能性极小。2011年初朝韩都发出缓和关系的信号,下半年会进一步缓和。朝韩双方都无法支撑长期紧张局势的压力,美国也需要在缓和中寻求朝核问题的解决途径。2011年下半年朝韩双方可能重启经贸合作,有限恢复韩国对朝鲜的人道主义援助。

Relationship between North and South Koreas:Development Tendency in 2011

Korean peninsula spent its 2010 in continuous tension.This results form the irreconcilable contradiction as well as the strategy on East Asia of the U.S.The situation with frequent tension and even armed conflicts has been normal in the Peninsula.Presently,neither North Korea nor South Korea has the ability to suppress or annex the other;the U.S is not able to launch a war to North Korea.China and Russia are a powerful factor to prevent war.With features of contesting but not breaking their relations,the possibility of war in the Peninsula is minimal.At the beginning of 2011,both countries emit signals for easing their relation and relation will be further relaxed in second half of the year.None of the Koreas can sustain the long-time tension and the U.S also needs to find way of solving the nuclear issue of North Korea in the process of mitigation.In the second half of 2011,the Koreas may restart trade cooperation,and the humanitarian assistance of South Korea to North Korea may restrictedly resume.