Applying Decision Analysis to Determine the Effect of Smoke Detector Laws on Fire Loss in the United States

Decision analysis is used to examine whether residential smoke detectors should be required by law. Statistics pertaining to fire incidence, fire death, smoke detector efficacy, and the consequences of fire are examined for accuracy and availability and combined in a decision model. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the model inputs. Included in the analysis is the idea that homes with detectors may have lower death rates due to the characteristics of those who purchase detectors rather than the detectors themselves. Results from the base case estimate show an expected cost of $65,000 per life saved when a law is enacted. This value lies well below the value implied by spending on other public safety programs.