原油高价的影响因素及对策研究

由于全球范围内石油供求矛盾突出、石油开采投资不足、有关国家石油战略储备量大幅增长和期货投机等因素,2004年国际原油平均价格达到41.47美元/桶,预计在2005年平均价格将达到45.23美元/桶,国际油价将不可避免地进入高油价时代。高油价对整个下游产业链都有着显著的影响。石油炼制、石油化工和下游加工行业应对高油价的能力,将随着与最终用户的不断接近而降低。通过建立安全可靠的原油供给体系、采用先进的生产工艺技术、扩大生产规模、产品结构的优化和降低综合能耗等一系列措施,石油化工行业可消化部分高油价所带来的压力,并适度向下游转移生产成本。在保持自身具有良好盈利的同时,石油化工行业可让出部分利润空间以促进下游加工行业的稳定发展,并有效抑制在石油化工产业上的盲目投资。

The Vital Factors of and Strategic Studies on the High Price of Crude Oil

In the year of 2004, the average price of crude oil in the world market reached 41.47 dollars per barrel, and it is predicted that the average oil price in 2005 will get to 45.23 dollars per barrel, therefore, the world oil market will inevitably enter the era of high price, which exerts great impact on the whole oil-processing industry chain. Generally the competitiveness, that is, the competence to transfer the relatively high cost and the profits of the oil-refining, the petrochemical and the down-stream processing industries will gradually go down while they are approaching the end-use customers, in which the petrochemical industry bridges the processing chain. With the establishment of the safe and reliable supply channels of crude oil, the application of the advanced processing technology, the expansion of the production plant, the optimization of product varieties, and the reduction of the complex energy consumption, the petrochemical industry can partially offset the pressure brought about by the high price and moderately transfer the production cost to the down-stream industries. Furthermore, while maintaining the good profiting competence of itself, the industry can consequently leave off partial potential of profit for the down-stream industries in order to promote the healthy and stable development of these industries, and effectively inhibit the blind investment in the petrochemical industry.