1955 —2007 年中国经济与犯罪关系实证研究

文章对1955-2007年中国经济增长、收入差距、人口流动率、城市化水平和犯罪率变化的数据运用岭回归方法建立多元线性回归模型,分析了改革开放前后犯罪率变化与经济增长、收入差距、人口流动率、城市化水平的关系.实证结果表明,宏观经济政策的变化对犯罪率有重要影响,不管在何种经济体制之下,经济增长始终会导致犯罪率的下降,而收入差距扩大都会带来犯罪率上升,由于社会控制方式的转变,改革开放以后人口流动率上升和城市化规模的扩大是犯罪率上升的重要原因.

Empirical Study on 1955-2007 Chinese Economy and Crime Relations

Based on the statistics from the year 1955 to 2007 on China's economic growth,income inequality,population rate of flow,urbanizd level and change of crime rate,this thesis applies range regression method and builds multi-dimensional linear regression model.The real diagnosis results indicate that changes in macroeconomic policies have significant effects on crime rate.Namely,economic growth causes crime rate to drop;deterioration of income inequality brings about rise of crime rate under whatever economic s...