Ensemble Habitat Mapping of Invasive Plant Species |
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Authors: | Thomas J. Stohlgren Peter Ma Sunil Kumar Monique Rocca Jeffrey T. Morisette Catherine S. Jarnevich Nate Benson |
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Affiliation: | 1. U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, National Institute of Invasive Species Science, Fort Collins, CO, USA.;2. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Sigma Space, Greenbelt, MD, USA.;3. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.;4. Department of Forest, Rangeland and Watershed Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.;5. National Interagency Fire Center, National Park Service, Boise, ID, USA. |
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Abstract: | Ensemble species distribution models combine the strengths of several species environmental matching models, while minimizing the weakness of any one model. Ensemble models may be particularly useful in risk analysis of recently arrived, harmful invasive species because species may not yet have spread to all suitable habitats, leaving species‐environment relationships difficult to determine. We tested five individual models (logistic regression, boosted regression trees, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and maximum entropy model or Maxent) and ensemble modeling for selected nonnative plant species in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, Wyoming; Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, and areas of interior Alaska. The models are based on field data provided by the park staffs, combined with topographic, climatic, and vegetation predictors derived from satellite data. For the four invasive plant species tested, ensemble models were the only models that ranked in the top three models for both field validation and test data. Ensemble models may be more robust than individual species‐environment matching models for risk analysis. |
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Keywords: | Boosted regression trees invasive species Maxent multivariate adaptive regression splines random forest species distribution modeling |
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