| 独生子女夫妇生育预测问题讨论 |
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| 引用本文： | 张二力.独生子女夫妇生育预测问题讨论[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2010,26(3):5-10,51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张二力 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家人口和计划生育委员会规划统计司,北京,100088 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文中一些数据（包括普查和“小普查”数据）由郭志刚教授提供,文章撰写也得到郭志刚教授葙顾宝昌教授的热诚帮助.本课题研究得到江苏省人口计生委统计处、北京昌平区、浙江湖州市、安徽宣城市、湖北愚施州、广东深圳市人口计生委（局）和山东即墨市人口计生局统计部门的大力支持和帮助.在此一并向他们表示衷心的感谢! |
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| 摘 要： | 就夫妇为独生子女的情况,对以下3个方面问题进行了讨论：1）年龄孩次递进生育率模型及用Exel计算的公式;2）三种获得独生子女年龄分布的方法及推算单、双独家庭妇女的年龄分布概率;3）一些地区符合政策可生育2孩妇女的2孩递进生育率水平。通过讨论帮助基层人口和计划生育系统干部把握独生子女夫妇生育问题对人口的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 递进生育率模型 递进生育率水平 2孩递进生育率 独生子女年龄分布 单独家庭 双独家庭 |
Discussion on Childbearing Forecast of Only-Child Couples |
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| ZHANG Er-li.Discussion on Childbearing Forecast of Only-Child Couples[J].Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programme Management,2010,26(3):5-10,51. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Er-li |
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| Abstract: | Centering around only-child couples,the following three questions are discussed： 1） age Parity Progression Fertility model and related Excel formulas;2） three methods of access to the only-child age distribution and then to the probability of women＇s age distribution of single/both only-child couples;3） a possible 2-child progressive fertility level in some areas of childbearing women who can have the 2nd child according to the policy.The paper hence hopes to help cadres of population and family planning sections at grassroots to be aware of the impact of the mentioned couple＇s childbearing on the whole nation＇s population. |
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| Keywords: | Parity Progression Fertility Model Progressive Fertility Level Progressive Fertility Of 2-Child Only-Child Age Distribution Family with One of the Couples Being Only Child Family with Both of the Couples Being Only Child |
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