国债市场有效性的初步探讨

 国债市场和股票市场都是国家重要的资本市场，围绕着我国资本市场的有效性的探讨文章已经不少，但绝大部分是围绕着股票市场展开的。到底国债市场有效性的程度如何呢？一直以来都缺少有关这方面的研究文章。而从目前的情况看，上海国债市场的成交金额已经超过了股票市场，国债市场的有效性的讨论就显得尤为重要了。 本文针对国债价格主要受利率和到期期限影响的特点，从央行降息所引起的国债价格的反映程度这一角度来探讨国债市场的有效性。

Preliminary Research on the Efficiency of State Treasury Bonds Market

Aiming at the feature of state treasury bonds price that it mainly depends on its interest rate and maturity date, this article studies the efficiency of bonds market from the reaction of its price to the cut-down of interest tare by central bank with the event study method. And indicates that the current market is not a semi-strong form of efficient market, although its efficiency is being improved continuously.