提示现实因素影响乐观偏差的有限性:自我-他人判断差异的证据

人们在自我相关将来事件认知中表现出的乐观偏差现象已被广泛证实。以往研究显示，提示与将来事件相关的现实因素（保护因素和风险因素）能够影响，但并不能消除乐观偏差。本研究操纵判断视角，考察提示现实因素对将来事件认知的影响是否存在自我-他人差异，进一步探讨提示现实因素有限影响乐观偏差的具体表现。实验采用组间设计，要求被试在提示现实因素的基础上，对积极和消极将来事件发生在自己或他人身上的可能性和时间距离做出判断。结果显示，提示现实因素对将来事件认知的影响存在自我-他人差异，对自我相关将来事件的认知主要受事件效价的影响，而对他人相关将来事件的认知主要受提示现实因素的影响；人际相似性不能缩小这种差异。

The Limitation of the Effect of Cuing Realistic Factors on Optimistic Bias: Evidence from Self-Other Differences

We often hold an optimistic view in our cognition of the future. Optimism bias is a most robust and widely replicated phenomenon. Previous studies have shown that realistic factors related to future events (protective factors and risk factors) may influence optimism bias, but will not eliminate it. This study manipulates judgment objects to examine whether there are self-other differences in the the effect of cuing realistic factors on future event cognition. The experiment is designed to be carried out between groups. Subjects were asked to make judgments about the possibility and temporal distance of positive and negative future events that may happen to themselves or others on the basis of cuing realistic factors. The results show that there are self-other differences in the influence of realistic factors on future event perception, and the perception of self-related future events is mainly affected by the valence of events, while the perception of other people''s related future events is mainly affected by the realistic factors. The self-other differences cannot be adjusted by the similarity between self and others.