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The government spending multiplier: Evidence from county level data

Institution:	1. Arkansas State University, USA;2. Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, USA;1. National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia;2. Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts;3. Michigan Department of Community Health, Lansing, Michigan;4. Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, Florida;1. Universite Paris X Nanterre, 200 Avenue de la Republique, 92000 Nanterre, France;2. Telecom ParisTech, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, 46 rue Barrault, 75013 Paris, France;3. School of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa;1. Department of Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota;2. Atrium Health, Charlotte, North Carolina;3. Biostatistics, Boston University SPH, Boston, Massachusetts;4. Mass Department of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts;5. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, New Hampshire;1. Department of Economics, Syracuse University, United States;2. Department of Economics and Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University, United States;3. IZA, Bonn, Germany;4. Global Labor Organization (GLO);5. Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States

Abstract:	The passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 has brought fiscal policy to the forefront once again. The size of the “multiplier” of government spending becomes of critical importance for determining the effect of stimulus programs. Yet there is considerable controversy about this issue. This study adds to the discussion on the size of the multiplier by using earnings data by county. This allows the creation of a panel data that includes 3141 counties for the time period 2001–2012. We estimate the federal government spending multiplier to be approximate 1.5. Our estimate for state and local spending multipliers are considerably smaller. Our results have implication for policy in that federal programs will be more effective for stabilization county economies than state or local spending.

Keywords:	Fiscal policy Government spending multiplier Zero bound monetary policy
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