基于"全面二孩"政策下的房价波动、收入水平对生育行为的影响研究

基于最新的2016年CFPS微观家庭数据，人群可分成中高收入和低收入两部分，通过建立Logit模型等来研究房价对于收入水平不同的家庭生育行为所带来的抑制效应和收入效应，同时为了避免内生性问题的产生，选定了相应的工具变量进行了检验。分析结果表明，生育行为因房价上升得到抑制，这一影响机制在中高收入人群当中更为显著，房价每上涨100元，低收入生育一孩的人群约减少1.29%，中高收入生育一孩的人群约减少2.66%。同时，房价波动的收入效应对于一孩、二孩生育的影响也具有异质性，对于一孩生育的收入效应不显著，对二孩生育的收入效应较为显著。

The Research on the Impact of Housing Price Fluctuations and Income Levels on Fertility Behavior based on the Universal Two Children Policy

Based on the latest CFPS micro-family data in 2016, this paper divides the data of population into two parts: middle and high-income and low-income. The logit model is used to study the inhibiting effect of housing prices and the income effect on the reproductive behavior of families with different income levels. At the same time, in order to avoid the endogenous problem, the author chooses appropriate tool variables. The conclusion of this paper shows that the rise of housing prices has a restraining effect on fertility behavior, among which, the impact on fertility behavior of middle and high-income groups is more significant. For every one hundred yuan rise in housing prices, the number of low-income people having one child decreased by 1.29 percent, and the number of middle and high-income people having one child decreased by 2.66 percent. At the same time, the income effect of house price fluctuation has heterogeneity on the birth of one child and two children. The impact on one child''s birth is not obvious, and the impact on the birth behavior of two children is more obvious.