去杠杆背景下房地产信托对房价的影响研究

基于2006年1月—2017年12月的全国月度数据，运用SVAR模型、脉冲响应和反事实模拟检验了去杠杆背景下房地产信托对货币政策调控和房价的影响，并且基于2007年—2016年全国68家信托公司的集合类房地产信托数据分析了房地产信托对房价区域差异化的影响。结果发现：房地产信托规模的增加导致银行间借贷成本上升；房地产信托的增长弱化了房价和房地产投资对紧缩型货币政策的响应程度；房地产信托对房价有正向的作用，且在东部地区影响最为显著。因此，应有效平衡房地产金融风险防范与房地产金融创新，促进信托公司快速转型，使得信托公司做到真正服务实体经济。

Research on the Influences of Real Estate Trust on Real Estate Price under the Background of Deleveraging

Based on the national monthly data from January, 2006 to December, 2017, using the SVAR model, the impulse response and the counterfactual simulation, this paper tests the influences that estate trust acts on monetary policy and real estate price under the background of deleveraging. Further, based on the estate trust data of national 68 trust companies from 2007 to 2016, using fixed effect model, the paper analyzes the regional influences of estate-trust on real estate price. The results suggest that the increase of estate trust scale results in the rise of interbank loan costs; the growth of estate trust weakens the degree of response when real estate price and estate investment act on tightening monetary policy; estate trust has a positive effect which is the most significant in the eastern region on real estate price. Therefore, we should effectively balance real estate financial risk prevention and real estate financial innovation,and promote the rapid transformation of trust companies, so that trust companies can truly help the real economy to be more sustainable.