| 中国劳动力转移的波动性研究——基于实际经济周期模型的实证检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 马轶群,李晓春.中国劳动力转移的波动性研究——基于实际经济周期模型的实证检验[J].中国人口科学,2011(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马轶群 李晓春 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学商学院;南京大学经济学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 文章构建了用于研究中国劳动力转移波动性的实际经济周期模型,对1978～2009年的劳动力转移进行实证检验,考察了技术冲击对中国劳动力转移波动的影响。研究发现,一是中国劳动力转移存在显著的周期波动性,与产出是顺周期;二是技术冲击可以解释中国经济波动的主要部分,尤其是技术冲击能够解释一半以上劳动力转移的波动;三是技术冲击对产出、居民消费、投资和劳动力转移产生了正向冲击,而对就业产生了负向冲击,其中,技术冲击对居民消费的影响最大,对产出和劳动力转移的影响次之,对投资影响最弱。
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| 关 键 词： | 劳动力转移 技术冲击 实际经济周期模型 |
An Analysis of Labor Transfer Fluctuation in China:An Empirical Study Based on A RBC Model |
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| Ma Yiqun Li Xiaochun.An Analysis of Labor Transfer Fluctuation in China:An Empirical Study Based on A RBC Model[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2011(5). |
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| Authors: | Ma Yiqun Li Xiaochun |
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| Institution: | Ma Yiqun Li Xiaochun |
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| Abstract: | A RBC model is built to study labor transfer fluctuation in China.Then an empirical study of labor transfer between 1978 and 2009 is conducted mainly to explore the impacts of technology shocks on the labor transfer in China.The study has several main findings.Firstly China's labor transfer has obvious cyclical fluctuation,and it is pro-cyclical with output.Secondly with the improved RBC model,the variance of China's cyclical fluctuation can be mainly explained by technology shocks,and especially over half ... |
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