后卡扎菲时代利比亚政治重建及前景

随着利比亚国内冲突基本平息,其政治重建也被提上议事日程。但也存在着各政治派别相持不下,政治立场存在分歧,社会对立严重,安全形势恶化,国际社会支持不够等一系列问题。由于同质化的民族和教派结构,以及丰富的油气资源,利比亚不大可能出现国家分裂。伊斯兰主义与世俗主义将形成相对平衡的关系,利比亚也将更加强调其阿拉伯的国家属性。但从长远来看,利比亚的政治重建不可能一蹴而就,其民主化进程将是一个长期的过程。

Libyan Political Reconstruction and its Prospect in Past-Qaddafi Era

With its internal conflict calming down,Libyan political reconstruction is now on the agenda.But there still exist many problems,such as the conflict of various political parties,the divergences of their political standpoints,the lack of political legitimacy of the new government,the doubts on the orientation of political development,and the deficiency of supports from the international community.Islamism is going to play a crucial role in Libya's political reconstruction,and Libya will also emphasize its character as an Arab country.In the long run,Libya's political reconstruction cannot be achieved overnight,and it democratization will also be a long-term process.