国际工程项目的脆弱性与政治风险的相关性研究

在分析国际工程政治风险形成机理的基础上,通过文献综述法识别22个国际工程项目的脆弱性影响因素,并采用因子分析法建立国际工程项目的脆弱性评价指标;通过问卷调查法获得134个国际工程项目的信息和政治风险损失,并采用TOPSIS法测量其工程项目的脆弱性,分析两者的相关性。结果表明:政治风险是工程项目外部干扰和系统脆弱性相互耦合的结果,在相同干扰度下,国际工程项目的脆弱性与风险损失存在显著正相关。国际承包商可以依据工程项目的脆弱评价指标以及脆弱性与政治风险的关系,不断改善和降低工程项目的脆弱性,从而更好地应对政治风险,并形成自身的竞争优势。

Research on the Relationship between the Vulnerability and Political Risk of International Construction Projects

Twenty-two variables related to the vulnerability of international construction projects were identified by literature review,and the vulnerability indicators were established by factor analysis. The information of 134 international construction projects then was obtained by questionnaires,and the vulnerability of them were measured by TOPSIS method. The correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between risk loss and vulnerability. The results show that political risks are the results of the mutual coupling between the external interference and the vulnerability,and the vulnerability of international construction projects has a significant positive correlation with the risk loss under the same interference. By reducing the vulnerability of projects according to the vulnerability indicators,International contractors can effectively manage the political risks and form their own competitive advantages.