电子货币对泰勒规则影响的理论和实证研究——以中国为例的分析

文章通过一个理论模型分析了电子货币的产生对于泰勒规则的影响作用,进而以中国为例,使用1988至2007年的数据分别对电子货币产生前后两段时期的泰勒规则进行了拟合。研究发现,泰勒规则与我国货币政策具有较强的一致性,并且电子货币进入成熟阶段后泰勒规则的有效性比电子货币产生之前的阶段大为降低。结论认为,中国进入电子货币时代后的最优货币政策规则应当是以泰勒规则为基础,以多种中介目标为辅助性操作工具的政策规则。

A Theoretical and Empirical Study of the Effects of Electronic Money on Taylor Rule China as a Case

This paper,on the basis of a theoretical model,primarily analyzes the effects of electronic money＇s generation on Taylor Rule.Taking China as a sample and using the data from 1988 to 2007,it estimates the consistency of Taylor Rule in the two periods respectively,i.e.the period before the generation of the electronic money and the period after that.This research finds that Taylor Rule is highly consistent with the monetary policy of China,and the effectiveness of Taylor Rule has been much weaker in the period when the electronic money is widely used than the period when the electronic money hasn＇t generated.It concludes that,in the time of electronic money,the optimal monetary policy rule should be one based on Taylor Rule,and adopt many intermediate objectives as assistant operating tools.