主要国家利率政策和汇率走势分析

2001年,主要国家经济衰退,其中央银行通过扩张性货币政策刺激经济增长,连续降低利率。从2002年7月起,美元对非美元主要货币汇率持续、大幅贬值。2003年,主要货币利率下调到近50年最低。2004年美国货币政策转向,美联储开始加息;2004年12月,美元对非美元主要货币汇率跌至历史低谷。2005年主要国家相继提高利率;美元对非美元主要货币汇率发生逆转,美元大幅反弹一路走强;欧元和日元持续走弱。2006年主要国家将继续实行紧缩性货币政策,继续谨慎、小幅加息;2006年国际外汇市场将保持目前格局:美元维持强势,欧元继续走弱,日元逐步回稳。

The research on the policy of interest rate and the situation of foreign exchange rate in the main countries

In 2001, The was a economy declines in the main countries. Their central banks stimulated economy through the expansionary monetary policy, reduced the interest rate continuously. The currency exchange rate of USD to the main non-USD continually depreciated largely from July of 2002.The interest rate of main currency descended to reach the lowest of 50 years approximately in 2003. The American monetary policy changed, and FED started to raise the interest rate in 2004. At the end of December, 2004, the currency exchange rate of USD to non-USD main currencies fell to the historical trough. The main countries raised their interest rate one after another in 2005. There was a reversion in the currency exchange rate of USD to non-USD main currencies, and USD rebounded largely and appreciated continuously to the non-USD main currencies. The Euro and the Japanese Yen descend deeply in 2005. The main countries will continue to implement the contracted monetary policy, and will raise the interest rate discreetly in 2006. The international foreign exchange market will maintain present position, namely, USD appears strong and Euro and Japanese Yen appears weakly in 2006, at least in the first half of the year.