基于灰色Verhulst模型的陕西省人口城镇化率预测

城市化是走向现代化的必经阶段,准确的城市化预测是进行经济、社会建设的基础.人口城镇化率的增长过程具有非线性饱和状态的特点,灰色Verhulst模型具有良好的适应效果.进一步的预测表明,陕西省人口城镇化率增长态势明显,由此引发的住房问题、人口膨胀、环境恶化、交通拥挤、社会治安问题必须妥善解决.

Prediction of Population Urbanization Rate in Shaanxi Province Based on the Gray Verhulst Model

Urbanization is the indispensable stage of modernization, and accurate prediction of urbaniza- tion is the foundation of economic and social construction . The growth of the population urbanization rate re- flects the characteristics of nonlinear saturation, and gray Verhulst model has a good adaptation effect. It is in- dicated by further prediction that the population urbanization rate in Shaanxi province is increasing obviously, causing some problems like housing shortage, population expansion, environmental degradation, traffic conges- tion, social security problems, which must be solved properly.