产业结构对城市化的影响研究——基于中印两国数据的比较分析

基于数据比较考察了开放经济格局下中印两国产业结构变迁对城市化的影响,并利用VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,验证了1978-2011年两国产业结构与城市化之间的动态关系。主要结论是:不同的改革开放策略导致了两国不同的产业结构演变,中国城市化得益于以工业为主导的产业结构,印度城市化更依赖于服务业主导的产业结构,而前者在城市化发展初期有着明显优势。因此,对于落后的发展中国家而言,工业化是推动城市化的必经之路;在工业化发展的基础上,发展高技术含量的服务业,是提高城市化质量的重要保证;同时,提高农村劳动力素质有助于加速产业结构转型,提高城市化水平。

Research on the Influence of Industrial Structure on Urbanization: A Comparative Analysis of China's and India's Data

This paper studied the impact the industrial structure change made on the urbanization under the open- ing economy. And by using the impulse response function of VAR model and variance decomposition, it also tested and verified the dynamic relation between the two aspects based on the 2 nations＇data of 1978 -2011. The results show that different opening strategies lead to different industrial structures, and China＇s urbanization bene- fits from the industry - oriented structures while Indian relies on the service - oriented structure, the former of which has obvious advantage. Therefore, for backward developing countries, industrialization is the only way to promote urbanization, while the development of high - tech services based on industriafization is the important guarantee to better the quality of urbanization; and the quality upgrading of rural labor helps to accelerate indus- trial restructuring and improve the level of urbanization.