农民工市民化与扩大内需

本文从一般均衡的视角,揭示农民工市民化与扩大内需的关系。中国之所以要立足内需发展经济,应对外需下滑只是一个短暂的原因,其根本原因在于改变当前经济内外失衡和产业结构失衡的＂双失衡＂格局,以及充分利用国内市场优势更好更快实现工业化的需要。如果采取切实措施加快农民工市民化进程,则其潜在的消费需求就可以充分释放出来。这不仅有助于抵消外需下滑对经济增长的负面影响,而且有助于中国经济摆脱＂双失衡＂格局,全面提升中国工业化和城市化水平。

Urbanization of Migrant Workers and Expansion of Domestic Demand

This paper explores, from the perspective of general equilibrium, the relationship between urbanizing migrant workers and increasing domestic demand. Why should China adopt the strategy of relying on domestic demand to develop its economy？ Countering the impact of declining external demand is only a temporary reason for doing so, and the more fundamental reason is the need to change the ＂dual imbalance＂ in today’s economy： the imbalance between internal and external economic arrangements and the industry structural imbalance, as well as the need to take full advantage of the domestic market to achieve the goal of industrialization. The latent consumption demand of migrant workers will be fully released if realistic measures are taken to accelerate the pace of turning migrant workers into urban residents. This will help neutralize the negative impact of reduced external demand, as well as rectifying the structural imbalances in the Chinese economy and upgrading China’s industrialization and urbanization.