工业化力度、人口流动行为与户籍改革

本文分析了户籍制度保护二元劳动力市场的前提条件 ,通过实证研究论证了工业化乏力和劳动力市场素质门槛是限制农村劳动力进城就业的根本原因。基于人口流动行为的分析 ,阐明了户籍制度改革可能使部分率先富裕起来的农民入住集镇或中小城市 ,但并不能根本改变民工在城乡间或城市间的“钟摆式”流动特征 ,难以达到促进城市化从而促进就业转换及扩大就业的目标 ,最后是政策含义。

Industrialization,Population Floating and Reform of Household Registration System

This paper analyzes the preconditions for household registration system protecting dual labor market. Based on empirical study,the paper demonstrates that the low industrialization and the quality of the labor market are the two main limits for rural labor force to migrate into cities. Through analyzing population floating,the paper points out that the household registration reform could facilitate some rich peasants to migrate into towns or small middle size cities,but may not change the pendulum style migration features between the urban and the rural,therefore may fail on the expectations for employment shift from the rural to the urban and expanding employment. The paper ends with some policy suggestions.