有效税率、投资与经济增长:来自中国数据的经验实证

本文测算了我国劳动、资本和消费的有效税率,以反映这三种要素的真实负担情况,然后,利用结构VAR模型分别研究三种税率的结构性冲击对投资和经济增长的动态影响。结果表明:消费支出有效税率的正冲击对投资率和经济增长率的影响程度最大,短期内有利于投资率的增加,长期来看有利于经济增长;劳动收入有效税率的正冲击对投资率和经济增长率的影响,短期效应为正,长期效应为负;对资本收入征税,短期内不利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期来看具有一定的正效应,但是影响程度相对较小。因此,我国税收政策调整的中长期目标应尽量选择以消费支出为税基,以促进经济的长期快速增长。

Effective Tax Rates,Investment and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in China

This paper measures the effective tax rates of labor income,capital income and consumer spending in China,which can reflect the real tax burdens of them.Based on these measurements,we construct the SVAR model to study the impact on investment and economic growth respectively,which is caused by the effective tax rate structural shocks.The results show that: The positive shock of consumption tax rate has the largest influence on investment rate and economic growth rate,which is conducive to the increment of investment rate in short-term and economic growth in long-term.For the labor income tax rate,it has a positive effect on investment rate and economic growth in short-term,but it has a negative effect in long-term.For the capital income tax rate,it has a negative effect in short-term,and has a positive effect in long-term,but the impact is relatively small.Therefore,for our long-term goal of tax policy,we should choose the consumer spending as the tax base in order to promote long-term rapid economic growth of our country.