Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts |
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Authors: | Peter A. Morrison |
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Affiliation: | RAND, Santa Monica, CA 90407, USA. morrison@rand.org |
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Abstract: | This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise "early warning" thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions. |
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