城镇化发展与财政政策相关关系的实证分析

近些年来的实践经验表明,我国城镇化水平的逐步上升与财政政策的支持有着密切的关系,因此建立合理的城镇化财政政策支持体系是我国面临的重大现实课题。本文突破了规范性研究的范畴,将财政政策对城镇化发展的支持进行量化,通过建立在向量自回归模型的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解来研究财政政策和城镇化发展之间的动态相关性以及三者之间的交互响应情况和响应路径。

Empirical Analysis to Urbanization and Financial Policy in China

The practical experience in recent years indicates that urbanization in China is closely related with financial policies. Therefore, establishing rational financial policy supporting system for urbanization is an outstanding problem in China. The text has broken the category of normative studies, and quantified the support of financial policies to urbanization. Based on Vector Auto-regression Model, the paper applies the pulse response function and the difference decomposition to analyze the dynamic correlativity between financial policies and urbanization, and the interaction and response route among them.