技术市场发展与经济增长的协整检验——基于1987～2009年的数据分析

文章以1987～2009年的科技统计数据为基础,运用计量经济学中的协整分析方法,对我国技术市场发展与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,技术市场发展与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系。同时在一定滞后期数上,两者具有双向因果关系。因此,为了实现技术市场与其它要素市场之间的互动,应努力使技术商品尽快产业化,缩短技术市场作用于经济增长的时间;大力加强技术市场的改革力度;建设社会化、网络化的科技中介服务体系。

Analysis of Cointegration Relationship of the Development of the Technology Market and Economic Growth Based on the Data between 1987 and 2009

Based on the data from 1987 to 2009,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between the technology market development and economic growth by using co-integration analysis in econometrics.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the technology market development and economic growth.Meanwhile in certain periods,there is dual causal relationship in the variables.Therefore,the interaction between technology market and other elements market should be implemented,efforts should be made to achieve technology goods industrialization as soon as possible,and the time of the role of technology in economic growth should be reduced.And the technology market reform should be strengthened;science and technology intermediary service system of socialization and networking should be established.