发展经济学中三个经典人口转移模型评述

对发展经济学中关于人口转移的三个经典模型进行解读和评述。刘易斯模型指出了人口转移的根本出路在于城市化,但其模型假设过于严格,与发展中国家的实际情况有很大差距。拉尼斯—费景汉模型考虑了农业在人口转移中的重要基础作用,但是忽略了农业部门和工业部门在人口转移过程中相互联系和相互促进的有机关系。托达罗模型分析了在存在城市失业的情况下农村人口转移问题,更加符合发展中国家的实际情况。但是他主张主要通过农村经济自身的发展来解决农村人口就业问题,因而阻止农村劳动力及人口向城市转移等抑制人口城市化的政策是不可取的。最后总结了三个模型对认识人口转移的启示。

Review of three classic models of population transfer in area of development economics

In this paper the interpretation and survey about three classic models of population transfer in area of development economics were conducted.Lewes model shows the fundamental way out for population transfer lying in urbanization,but its hypotheses are too strict.There is a wide gap between this model and the actual situation of developing country.Ranis-Fei integrates the essential role of agriculture in the issue of population transfer into his model,but neglects the linkage of interconnection and mutual promotion between agriculture section and industry section in the process of population transfer.Todaro model analyzes the problem of rural population transfer in the case of unemployment existing in urban area.This model is more sensible for the reality of developing country,however,his advocate of employing the rural population mainly by self development of agriculture will lead to keep rural labor and population from shifting into urban area,thus such polices of restraining urbanization in term of population transfer can not be recognized.At last the paper concluded with the enlightenment of those three models to cognition of population transfer.