长寿风险对教育和退休决策的影响

本文在三阶段世代交叠及两部门经济模型的框架下研究长寿风险对劳动者受教育年限、退休年龄及长期收入的影响。个人的一生分为教育、工作及退休三个阶段，同时劳动者采用经验-工资的倒U型曲线，在此条件下分析劳动者的工作-闲暇决定和消费-储蓄决定。根据模型显示，长寿风险会增加个人的受教育年限、延长退休年龄以及增加劳动者的长期收入。同时，根据模型的敏感性分析，政府对劳动者征收的税率也会对劳动者个人决策产生影响，而且这种影响的程度超过了长寿风险的影响。最后，根据模型的结论提出了相应的政策性建议。

The Effects of Longevity Risk on Decisions of Education and Retirement

This paper studies the impact of longevity risk on years of schooling, retirement age and long-run income of labor force based on the framework of three-stage Overlapping Generations Model and two-sector economic model. One’s life can be divided into three stages of education, working and retirement, and the curve of experience-earnings is set as the inverted U-shape. In this context, it studies the labor’s decisions on working-leisure and consumption-saving. According to our model, increasing in longevity risk will raise the years of schooling, postpone retirement age and thus increase the long-run income. At the same time, according to sensitivity analysis, the tax rate which the government exposes on the laborers will affect the individuals’ decisions more than longevity risk will. At last, policy suggestions is proposed according to the conclusions of the models.