产能和需求不确定情形下ATO系统最优库存和生产决策研究

通过将产成品的最终组装环节延迟到观察到实际需求以后进行,按订单组装(Assemble-to-Order,ATO)策略能够有效避免按库存生产(Make-to-Stock)策略下因为生产过剩而带来的损失和风险。然而,在未来产能有限的情形下,生产商必须提前组装部分产成品,以最大化自身收益。本文考虑一个未来需求和组装产能同时具有不确定性的单周期ATO系统:在观察到实际需求以前,生产商必须准备好所有的零部件库存,并组装适量的产成品;观察到实际需求和实际可用组装能力以后,则根据需要进一步追加产成品产量,以尽可能满足客户需求,从而最大化自身利益。通过构建一个两阶段规划模型,我们研究了生产商的最优零部件库存和最优生产决策;并进一步考察了生产商可以通过紧急外包来获取额外组装产能时的最优决策。研究结果为随机环境下生产商合理采购零部件库存和合理安排生产提供了有益的管理启示。

Optimal Inventory and Production Decisions for a Single-Period ATO System with Uncertain Capacity and Uncertain Demand

By postponing the final assembly of products until the actual demand is observed,ATO (Assemble-to-Order) systems can reduce the over-production cost and risk that usually exist in the MTS (Make-to-Stock) systems. However,when the future assembly capacity is constrained,the assembler must assemble a certain quantity of final products in advance so as to maximize his revenue. This paper considers a single-period ATO system that faces both uncertain future demand and uncertain assembly capacity. Before the actual demand is observed,the assembler needs to procure all the necessary components,and pre-assemble some final products. After the actual demand and the actual available capacity are observed,he needs to assemble the rest of the product (if needed),so as to satisfy the customer as much as possible and thus maximize his profit. Based on a two-stage optimization model,the optimal component-inventory and optimal production decisions of the assembler are studied in this paper.We further extend the model to a more complicated situation where emergent outsourcing can be acquired,at an extra cost,to increase the assembly capacity. Our research results provide some interesting managerial insights for the scheduling of ATO systems in an uncertain environment.