| “九五”期间我国经济周期的变动趋势与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴国富,崔斌.“九五”期间我国经济周期的变动趋势与预测[J].统计研究,1997,14(6):43-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴国富 崔斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院应用数学研究所概率统计室(吴国富)，国家统计局统计科学研究所(崔斌) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文运用周期自回归模型对“九五”期间我国经济周期波动进行了定量分析，并对新旧经济周期转折点进行预测。
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On the Trend of Economic Cycle during the 9th -5-years Period and Its Forecasting |
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| WU Guo-Fu,CUI Bin.On the Trend of Economic Cycle during the 9th -5-years Period and Its Forecasting[J].Statistical Research,1997,14(6):43-46. |
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| Authors: | WU Guo-Fu CUI Bin |
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| Abstract: | Base on the characteristics of periodical fluctuation exist in the economic running in our country, the change trend of economic cycle during the 9th -5-years period were forecasted using the periodical auto-regression model, and its running orbit and high-low points were measured. Then, combined with the forecasted results, the characteristics in our economic fluctuation during the period were analyzed. And finally, two permanent trends in future economic running were showed: our economy grows at high speed and its fluctuation tends to be stable and convergence. |
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