Modeling Acute Rheumatic Fever

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a major cause of heart disease, rare in developed countries, but of concern in New Zealand, where a unique feature is the prevalence of ARF among Maori and Pacific Island peoples. The incidence and prevalence of ARF in a population are modeled for the New Zealand case, where risks of contracting Group A Streptococcus or developing ARF are allowed to vary according to ethnicity, age, and ARF history. The critical parameter R₀ determines whether a disease will become epidemic or not. A proportional treatment protocol is the most effective at reducing ARF.