Modeling Acute Rheumatic Fever |
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Authors: | Mark McGuinness Nokuthaba Sibanda Melissa Welsh |
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Affiliation: | 1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Victoria University of Wellington, New ZealandMark.McGuinness@vuw.ac.nz;3. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand |
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Abstract: | Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a major cause of heart disease, rare in developed countries, but of concern in New Zealand, where a unique feature is the prevalence of ARF among Maori and Pacific Island peoples. The incidence and prevalence of ARF in a population are modeled for the New Zealand case, where risks of contracting Group A Streptococcus or developing ARF are allowed to vary according to ethnicity, age, and ARF history. The critical parameter R0 determines whether a disease will become epidemic or not. A proportional treatment protocol is the most effective at reducing ARF. |
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Keywords: | acute rheumatic fever critical parameter effective treatment heart disease Maori mathematical model Pacific Island people |
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