Modeling Multisite Activity from Occupational Surveys: Deducing the Number of Anesthesiologists from a Count of Anesthesiology Posts in France

Reliable data on the total number of physicians practicing in France cannot be obtained from national professional or administrative files which are not kept to date. From a public health standpoint, the total number of physicians' posts in establishments matters more than the actual total number of physicians, although the latter is necessary for demographic projections and to determine training needs. Shared work in the same post is sometimes encouraged to avoid closure of the post or even of the establishment. The relationship between the total number of posts in an occupation and the total number of individuals working in those posts depend on the duration of a reference period for the enumeration. An original model of this relationship is developed and applied to a count of anesthesiology posts in France with different values of the reference period. Instead of the usual question “How many anesthesiologists are currently working in your hospital?” the model suggests that the right question is “How many anesthesiologists have been working in your institute since the last 2.5 weeks?”. The total number of anesthesia and intensive care practitioners estimated by the model is 8,992 which is lower than the direct count of 9,741 posts.