中国物流业发展对经济促进作用的实证研究

采用协整和格兰杰因果检验等最新计量统计方法检验我国物流业发展与经济增长之间的关系。研究发现,国内生产总值分别与货运量、货物周转量和交通、仓储和邮电通信业产值之间存在高度的正相关关系,同时协整检验结果发现各个指标之间存在长期的协整关系。最后通过格兰杰因果检验发现:从物流业供给水平发展和发展成效的角度看货运量和GDP,交通、仓储和邮电通信业的综合产值和GDP分别互为格兰杰因果之因;从物流业需求的角度讲货物周转量是我国经济增长的格兰杰因果之因,但经济增长不是货物周转量的格兰杰因果之因;以上研究表明我国的经济增长与物流业发展呈现相互促进、共同发展的趋势。

An Empirical Study of the Active Roles of Logistics Industry on Economy in China

This paper uses the newest measurement and statistical methods and tests the relationship between the development of the logistics industry of China and the economic growth.The research shows that the gross domestic product has high positive correlation respectively with the quantity of shipments and turnover of freight traffic,and the production value of traffic,storage and posts and telecommunications.At the same time,the co-integration test results show that all the indexes have long term co-integration relationship.Finally the use of the Granger-causality demonstrates that the investigation from the perspective of the supply level development and the development effect of the logistics industry proves that the quantity of shipments and GDP are mutual causes with the comprehensive production value of the traffic,storage and posts and telecommunications in terms of the Granger causality.The perspective of the demand of the logistics industry shows that the turnover of freight traffic is the cause of the Chinese economic growth in terms of the Granger causality,but the economic growth is not the cause of the turnover of the freight traffic.All the studies above show that the economic growth and the logistics industry in China enhance mutually and co-develop.