中国人口控制政策的历史变化与改革趋势

在解放后至今的半个多世纪中,我国不同历史阶段的人口控制政策不同。从控制人口数量增长这个纬度而言,1966~1976这十年成果显著;1977年以后的激进指标增加了完成国家计划的难度,故导致了20世纪80年代政策的波动;1988年以来政策多元而稳定,终于迎来了低生育水平的局面。从现阶段看,不能简单地将中国“计划生育”理解为“一对夫妇一个孩”;从长时段上看,中国在降低人口增长率方面为世界总结的最重要的经验是“晚、稀、少”。面对生育率的持续降低,应考虑选择恰当时机改革现行政策。

A study of the historical development of China's population control and its trend

Over the past half century after China's liberation,diversity could be found in China's population control policies in different stages.In terms of control over the growth of population,the period between 1966 the 1976 saw the great achievement.The economic ambition after 1977 increased the difficulty in achieving the nation's objective,leading to the policy fluctuations in the 1980s'.The diverse and stable policy after 1988 resulted in low population growth.For the time being,China's "family planning" should not simply be understood as "one family one child".In the long run,the key experience regarding reducing population growth that China has worked out for the world is "to postpone the time of giving a birth,to increase the time span of having another baby and to have fewer babies".In the context of continuous decrease in population growth,prompt reforms should be made to the existing policies.