Indigenous Australian population projections: problems and prospects

According to estimates from the 2006 Census, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians made up 2.5 % of the total Australian population. However, the focus of research and policy debate on Indigenous Australians far exceeds their population size for reasons of history, socio-economics, geography and demography. This has led to a need for accurate population projections of the population. In this paper, we outline a number of issues related to Indigenous population projections. These include the nature of self-identification; the impact of particular policy changes; significant differences in demographic parameters; and high rates of exogamy, especially in urban areas. We also document the relative accuracy of past and current population projections. In the final section of the paper we outline a research agenda that has the potential to lead to new and better Indigenous population projections.