| 我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响因素研究——兼论我国经济由外需拉动向内需驱动转型的一个证据 |
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| 引用本文： | 祝建,余思勤.我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响因素研究——兼论我国经济由外需拉动向内需驱动转型的一个证据[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2011,10(3):54-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 祝建 余思勤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海,201307
2. 上海海事大学研究生部,上海,201307 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海海事大学研究生创新基金项目(yc2010011) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量影响因素的VAR模型,分金融危机之前和以来两阶段对交通运输固定投资、人民币汇率、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响进行实证研究。由方差分解分析发现：对交通运输体系固定投资的增加在金融危机以来较金融危机之前更能提高沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量;人民币汇率的波动在金融危机之前和以来均不对沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量形成显著影响;金融危机以来世界经济的复苏显著提高沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量;金融危机之前我国国内经济状况对沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响在金融危机以来得到了大幅削弱。
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| 关 键 词： | 沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量 影响因素 外需拉动 内需驱动 VAR模型 |
A Study on Factors Influencing the Coastal Ports' Foreign Trade Cargo Throughputs in China:A Case of Transformation from Export-Orientation to Home-Demand-Economy |
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| ZHU Jian,YU Si-qin.A Study on Factors Influencing the Coastal Ports' Foreign Trade Cargo Throughputs in China:A Case of Transformation from Export-Orientation to Home-Demand-Economy[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University Social Sciences Edition,2011,10(3):54-60. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Jian YU Si-qin |
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| Institution: | ZHU Jiana,YU Si-qinb(a.School of Economics and Management,b.Department of Graduate Education,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201307,China) |
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| Abstract: | By building the VAR model for the factors influencing the coastal ports' foreign trade cargo throughputs in China based on gravity model of trade,this paper conducts an empirical survey on such factors as the fixed investment in transportation,the RMB exchange rate,the global and local economic conditions in the respective periods before and after the financial crisis.The result of variance decomposition analysis shows that firstly,since the financial crisis,the increase of fixed investment in transport sys... |
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| Keywords: | coastal ports' foreign trade cargo throughputs in China factors export-oriented economy home-demand-oriented economy VAR model |
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