技术进步的就业效应:基于中国数据的经验分析

实证分析结果表明,我国的技术进步和就业存在着长期的均衡关系。技术进步对我国就业的影响具有滞后性,且弹性较大。长期内技术进步对就业具有促进作用,但短期内技术进步对就业具有破坏效应。技术进步与就业之间的关系存在较大的波动性,这可能是因为伴随着改革开放的进行,产业结构的调整对就业产生了影响,且这种影响在初期对就业变化的贡献率可能高于技术进步的贡献率。

The Employment Effect of Technological Progress: An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

Empirical results show that China's technological progress has a long-term equilibrium relationship with employment.Technological progress has a lag influence on employment with great elasticity.In the long run,technological progress will promote the employment.However,in a short term,technological progress will have a damaging effect on employment.There is a relatively large fluctuation relationship between technological progress and employment,maybe because the industrial restructuring has an impact on employment along with the reform and opening up.In the initial period,such impact may contribute more to the change of employment than technological progress.