“京十二条”房地产调控政策的影响——基于TEI@I方法论

北京市政府为落实国务院坚决遏制房价过快上涨的通知,在2010年4月30日发布了十二条具体调控措施,北京房地产交易市场因此受到严重的打击.本文基于TEI@I方法论,使用集成了文本挖掘、经济计量模型和神经网络的分析框架,对本次北京房地产调控政策的影响强度及持续时间进行分析,并将其与国家调控政策对其他一线城市的影响进行对比.结果发现本次"京十二条"调控政策对北京市期房和现房交易额的影响显著,而国家统一的调控政策对上海、深圳的房地产交易市场影响较小.

Effects of the "Beijing Twelve Measures" real estate regulation policy: Based on TEI@I methodology

Late in April of 2010,China has introduced a series of control measures in housing prices.As the implementation of the regulations made by the State Council,the Beijing Municipal Government has also released twelve specific measures in April 30.Based on TEI@I methodology,using an analytical framework integrating text mining,econometric models and intelligent algorithm,the intensity of and the impact′s duration of the Beijing real estate control policies,as well as a comparison of the influences of the policies on other first-tier cities,are analyzed.The results show that the volume of transactions on forward delivery housing and existing housing have decreased significantly due to the harsh strike in Beijing,however,the decrease is not so obvious in Shanghai and Shenzhen.