我国货币政策中介目标选择模型及实证研究

在一个有效的货币政策运行系统中，中介目标是一个重要环节。货币政策的作用具有滞后性，有必要借助于一些能够较为迅速地反映经济状况变化的变量，作为观察货币政策实施效果的信号。运用协整理论，得到了我国近年来货币供应量与GDP以及一年期的存款利率R1的关系，并提出了新的货币政策框架。

Theoretical and Empirical Research on the Choice of Middle Target in China's Monetary Policies

In an effective operation system of monetary policy, middle target is an important link because the function of monetary policy that people realize is characterized by being lagging behind. Therefore, it is necessary to resort to variables that can reflect economic changes rapidly as the signal of observing the implementing effect of monetary policy. It is helpful for us to make our own choice during the reform by reviewing the historical orbit that the middle target in the western countries develops. This article, adopting co-integration test, retrieves the variant relationship between currency money supply and one-year bank interest together with GDP in China in recent years,and then puts forward a new monetary policy frame.