Population,projections, and policy: A cautionary perspective |
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Authors: | Dr J Mayone Stycos |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Rural Sociology, Cornell University, 14853 Ithaca, NY |
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Abstract: | Population projections depend on censuses, vital statistics and sample surveys, all of which have deficiencies that are most
marked in the less developed countries (LDCs). Long-range projections by international agencies have recently undergone major
revisions, while forecasts of the U.S. population have changed drastically over the past four years. The United Nations typically
prepares “high,” “medium” and “low” projections. Even the high projection contains optimistic assumptions about fertility
decline, while assumptions of constant or increasing fertility receive no serious attention. The paper suggests that high
and constant fertility projections should receive more attention from policy makers, with medium estimates treated more as
targets achievable only through considerable programmatic effort. At the same time, economic and social plans should be laid
for dealing with the population sizes implied by the “high” variants. |
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Keywords: | |
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