对我国财政可持续性的实证分析

经过多年的扩张性财政政策,目前经济已开始出现回升的转机,宏观调控初见成效。但由此给财政带来的却是日见庞大的财政赤字和国债规模,财政风险渐增,这就有必要对当前我国财政的可持续性作一个全面的分析,以获得可靠的判断。文章从一般性的衡量指标入手,加以合理的修正,对目前的财政形势作出个人的判断,并据此提出一点建议。

A Positivist Study on China's Fiscal Sustainability

After several years of exercising an active expanding financial policy,China's economy begins to show signs of recovery,and this also owes to the macro-economic adjustment.But at the same time ,the money policy incurs rising financial deficits,increasing national debts and financial risk.Therefore,there is a need to make an overall analysis of our fiscal sustainability and then a reliable judgement.The paper,on the basis of general measure standards and reasonable revisions,assesses the present financial situations and sets forth some suggestions.