城市工资上涨、劳动力转移与投资拉动增长方式——基于中国地级城市面板数据的分析

改革开放后,中国以高投资率带动了城市经济的高速增长,但随着农村剩余劳动力存量的不断减少,劳动力供给增长开始跟不上高投资带来的劳动力需求的增长,城市经济的发展正面临着工资加速上涨、投资的产出与就业效应不断降低的挑战。文章利用2004～2009年中国地级城市面板数据进行实证分析,结果显示,城市工资上涨对劳动力供给的拉力是递减的,而对劳动力需求的抑制作用却是递增的;劳动力市场均衡的比较静态分析结果显示,投资的工资上涨效应在递增,而投资的产出与就业效应在递减,因此城市工资上涨是必然趋势。此外,工资上涨对外商直接投资有明显抑制作用,在国内外双重压力下,中国继续实行投资拉动的增长方式已不是明智的选择。

Urban Wage Increase,Labor Transfer and Investment-driven Growth:Based on the Analysis of Panel Data of China’s Prefecture-level Cities

Since the reform and opening-up,China’s high investment rate has led to rapid economic growth in the urban areas.However with the dwindling stock of rural surplus labor force,the growth rate of labor supply is lower than that of the labor demand,and economic development in cities is facing with the challenge of wage’s increasing and the continually reducing in the effects of investment on output and employment.By using panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2009,this paper’s empirical results show that influence of urban wage increase on the labor supply is weakening,while its negative impact on labor demand is incremental.Labor market equilibrium and comparative static analysis show that the effect of investment on wage’s increase is increasing,whereas that on output and employment effects is decreasing.Therefore the increasing of urban wage becomes inevitable.In addition,wage rising significantly inhibits foreign direct investment.Under the dual pressure from home and abroad,China’s continuing to implement the investment-driven growth is not a wise choice.