改革开放以来我国历次出口下降的原因及影响分析

 本文基于国民收入核算恒等式，分析了上世纪80年代以来我国历次出口下降，证实出口作用于经济的内在机理是复杂的，出口下降对经济增长的影响与下降的原因、下降的程度和内需走向等因素有关，并不一定都对经济增长造成严重伤害。研究还指出在分析出口下降对经济影响时需注意的三个问题，并提出了应对出口下降的政策建议。

The Analysis on China's Exports Declines since 1980s:Decline Reasons and Impacts on the Economy

Based on national accounting identity,this paper analyzes China's seven times exports declines since 1980s and demonstrates that the role of exports in the economy is complex.The impacts of exports decline on economic growth have tight relationships with reasons for the decline,Extent of decline and direction of domestic demand,which means exports decline,does not necessarily result in serious depression.The study also points out three issues needed to pay more attention in the analysis of the exports impac...