“新农保”精算模型的建立与实证分析

根据＂新农保＂制度运行机理,建立了个人账户的精算模型,并结合人口寿命分布模型,预测新农保个人账户养老金的收支缺口。结果显示：农村居民参加新农保比直接在银行储蓄获得的收益更大,新农保值得参保;参保方式多样化,参保人可以根据自身的实际年龄、参保喜好、收入水平以及预期期望可领取的养老金水平来选择开始参保年龄、缴费水平和缴费年限;新农保个人账户养老金存在21%的缺口,不过缺口额占GDP的比例较小,并且增长缓慢,政府将有较充裕的时间对制度进行改进。＂新农保＂基金缺口产生的原因是制度设计的不合理,应适时调整个人账户养老金计发系数和退休年龄或者将个人账户养老金进行市场化投资运营,来保障新农保基金的可持续发展。

Establishment and Empirical Analysis on Actuarial Model of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance

According to the operation mechanism of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance (NRSEI) system,this paper establishes an actuarial model of individual account and predicts the gap between income and expense of the NRSEI individual accounts pension with the combination of population life distribution model.The result shows that rural residents who participate in the NRSEI will gain more profits than direct deposit money in banks.Therefore,the NRSEI deserves participation.There are many kinds of ways to participate in the NRSEI.Rural residents can choose ages beginning their participating,level of payment and years of payment according to their actual ages,participating preferences,income level and expected anticipations.There exists a gap of 21% in the NRSEI individual accounts.But the gap only accounts for a relatively small proportion of GDP,and it increases slowly.Therefore,the government has a plenty of time to improve the NRSEI system.Unreasonable system contributes to the gap of new rural social endowment insurance.Therefore,in order to ensure the sustainable development of the NRSEI fund,this paper proposes that we should timely adjust the coefficient of individual account annuities and retirement age,or bring individual account annuities to market-based investment operations.